Seyed Massoud Mousavi Ardabili
Prof. Akbar Komijani
The Semi-annual Journal of “Economic Studies and Policies” is a journal with anonymous (closed) refereeing system that is published for free to promote economic concepts in Iran, reflect the existing views and access easily. It publishes articles free of cost. All costs related to the compilation, preparation and publication of articles are covered by MU. The journal is published in both print and digital editions once every two seasons; articles are accepted in Persian and English and they are reviewed. The minimum time to review articles in “Economic Studies and Policies” will be eight weeks.
Volume 7, Issue 1
Winter and Spring 2020
The Effect of Economic Markets Efficiency on the Bilateral Trade of Iran and the Selected Countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abolfazl Shahabadi; Behnaz Khoshtinat; Amir Ali Asgharnezhad; Ali Moradi
Expansion of bilateral trade with developed countries increasing economic growth through access to larger markets and new entrants. On the one hand, increasing the efficiency of the economic markets by creating foreign savings and making more efficient use of existing resources contributes to the growth of total factor productivity, lowering the cost of domestic products and strengthening their competitiveness, and boosts bilateral trade with developed countries. In this regard, the present study uses panel data from 2011 to 2017 to examine the effect of economic markets efficiency, including goods market, labor market and financial market on bilateral trade between Iran and the 20 selected countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The research model is estimated using gravity model and generalized moment's method. The results showed that the goods market efficiency; labor market efficiency and financial market development on the bilateral trade between Iran and selected developed countries are positive and significant, while the estimated coefficient of goods market efficiency is larger than the other two markets. Also the effect of GDP variables and the real exchange rate of Iran and selected countries on their bilateral trade are positive and significant and the effects of geographical distance and difference in per capita income between Iran and selected countries on their bilateral trade are negative and significant.
The Impact of Business Cycles on the Effect of FDI on Domestic Investment in Iran by Markov-Switching Approach
Karam Jafari Parvizkhanlou; Khalil Saeidi; Mohammad khezri; Kambiz Hozhabr Kiani; Fatemeh Zandi
Foreign direct investment flows affect domestic investment in various dimensions. The specific feature of the effect of FDI on domestic investment relates to its complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment. In assessing the impact of FDI on domestic investment the key question is whether the FDI flow will lead to an increase or decrease in domestic investment?. So that the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of foreign direct investment on domestic investment in Iran with a focus on business cycles during the period 1984- 2017. The boom and stagnation periods were estimated using the Markov-switching model. Then, using the ARDL method, the impact of boom times and recession on the effect of FDI on domestic investment was investigated. The results showed that FDI had a significant negative impact on domestic investment in both periods of boom and recession. But the impact of FDI and the cross-cutting effect of FDI during the recession are much stronger than the total impact of FDI and the period of economic boom on domestic investment. FDI, therefore, has a stronger crowding in effects on domestic investment during the recession compared to the boom period. Government stability also had a direct impact on domestic investment, While Interest rates, consumer price indices and trade had a negative impact on Iran's domestic investment.
The Effective Factors on Demand for Car Insurance by Pasargad Insurance in Shiraz
sayed Zia Aldin Kiaalhoseini; Hosein Aghazadeh; Raziyeh Banihashemi
یکی از مهمترین عوامل توسعۀ اقتصادی، وجود یک سیستم مالیاتی کارآمد است. درآمدهای مالیاتی بیشتر برای وابستگی کمتر کشورهای کمدرآمد به کمکهای بلاعوض،مهم است. سیستممالیاتی میتواندتصمیمهای سرمایهگذاری بینالمللیراتحت تأثیر قرار دهد. همچنین مالیاتها حکمرانی خوب را تشویق کرده، لازمۀ تقویت ساخت دولت است و پاسخگویی دولت را افزایش میدهد. اولین گام در فهم سیستمهای درآمد عمومی، ایجاد تعدادی معیار و مقیاس سنجش عملکرد مورد توافق عموم است. یکی از معیارهای سنجش عملکرد سیستم مالیاتی، ظرفیت مالیاتی است. به این دلیل، در این پژوهش به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت مالیاتی 57 کشور درحالتوسعۀ صادرکنندۀ نفت خام در طول سالهای 1996 تا 2014 به منظور تعیین نقش و اهمیت هر یک از این عوامل در تأثیرگذاری بر ظرفیت مالیاتی پرداخته شده است. این پژوهش در نظر دارد نوعشناسی عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت مالیاتی را برای برآوردن نیازهای در حال ظهور سیاستگذاران کشورهای درحالتوسعه بررسی کند.
Structural Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Iran Using PCA and ARDL Methods
Reza Allahyari; MohammadReza Yousefi Sheikhrobat; Naser Elahi
The purpose of this study was to investigate the structural barriers to attracting foreign direct investment in Iran. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used. The time period of this study was based on annual frequency in 1396-1386. The purpose of foreign investment in the country is to promote economic growth and development, increase job opportunities, obtain and develop technology and management skills, improve product quality, and increase the country's export potential. Investment has a multiplier effect, too, in an economy whose potential and capacity are increased through increasing economic growth in the short - term and following increasing the production and profitability of firms, the tendency of businesses to grow and thus increasing the employment resulting from new investments, increasing households ' incomes and more consumption. To extract the components used in this study was done using principal component analysis method (pca). The components used in this study included institutional quality and good governance, economic development and human capital, wages, economic liberalization, rate of openness.
The Effect of Macroeconomic Resilience on Bank Credit Risk (Cross-Country Study)
Sayed Soheib Madani Tonekaboni; Mehdi Adibpour; Mahmood Mahmoodzadeh; Saleh Ghavidel
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of macroeconomic resilience on credit risk of the banking system using annual data (2005-2016) for 125 countries in the form of GMM Model. The results show that the components of Good Governance, Market Flexibility and Human Development on credit risk is negative and significant. The effects of macroec-onomic instability variables and the cost of starting a business on credit risk is positive and significant. In addition, the misery index (the sum of inflation and unemployment rates), human development, Nonperformance loan in the past year, and political stability have had the highest degree of impact on the credit risk of the banking system. Also the cross effect of political stability and good governance with macroeconomic imbalances has reduced the credit risk of the banking system. The effect of nonperformance loan in the previous period and the ratio of profit margin to gross income, and the effect of capital adequacy ratios are negative and significant.
Evaluation of the Effect of Contagion Risk on the Macroeconomic Performance of Iran and Identifying Too-Connected-To-Fail (TCTF) Banks GMM
Mostafa Seraj; Reza Tehrani; Saeed Fallahpour
The interbank market and the activity of banks in financial markets have led to the interconnectedness of banking system. In the normal situation, the interconnectedness will make the system more stable, but in a turbulent condition, the crisis will quickly spread to the entire banking network. In order to effective policy making in financial stability, continuous measurement and monitoring of the level of contagion in the banking network and studying the mechanism of its impact on macroeconomics is required. This paper evaluates the risk of contagion by using Dynamic causality statistics (DCI), and has identified the banks that have a systemic importance in terms of contagion or so-called too-connected-to-fail (TCTF). The relationship between GDP changes and the value added of the financial sector with changes in the DCI index of Iran's banking sector has been evaluated using Granger causality, which indicates a negative relationship up to 12-month time horizon. In order to take a timely measure for decreasing the adverse effects of systemic risks, Policy-makers should monitor DCI index continuously.